LM portfolio as at 25/11/2022:
| Code | Sector | Date Bought | Cost | Value | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LM051 | ETC | 07/11/2022 | £1270 | £1190 | (6.70%) |
Today is the last day where we get 4 World Cup matches at separate times, giving both a marathon of betting opportunities as well as a football-viewing feast.
And what a World Cup it has been so far, especially the fantastic result for Saudi Arabia on Tuesday where they beat Argentina 2-1.
It was a very welcome outcome as the fawning and sucking-up to Messi from the commentators just before kick-off became too much.
He's not listening to you, lads, and he never will.
Anyone would think Jesus himself was lacing up boots the way they were talking. I don't understand the enthusiasm many seem to have to see Messi and Argentina win the World Cup.
Yes, he has won player of the year several times and yes this is his last World Cup but he isn't owed anything. He's just a collection of squashy organs and bones in a skin wrapper just like the rest of us.
Following the blatant brown-nosing from all the ITV broadcast team, it was refreshing to see Messi do basically nothing save for scoring a penalty gleaned from a lame decision.
Whilst the match was great, the result was nothing short of superb.
Even more so since I had money on that particular correct score at 110 (i.e. 109/1) AND money on Saudi winning the match at 36 (35/1). Both bets (and several more losing ones) came from system 2.
Once Saudi Arabia scored their second to make it 1-2 I saw that I could cash out for a profit of £110 in the correct score market. It was very tempting as the odds were showing that EVERYONE was still expecting Argentina to come back and equalise, if not eventually win.
Usually I put these bets on, don't watch any of the matches and the first time I will check on my bets is the following day by clicking Refresh on the Betfair tab I leave open on the PC. My hope is to see the balance jump up and then I know I had a good day.
It's a tactic that seems to work; keeping my distance from the in-play betting options means I won't mess around with any bets - I won't be tempted to cashout and potentially lose out. My bets are made before the match and left to win or lose come full-time.
This time I was watching in real time knowing that two more goals from Argentina - or one more from Saudi Arabia - would mean a small loss rather than a large win.
2-2 I could live with as I had a bet on that, 3-2 or 1-3 would mean having a large profit snatched from my grasp to be replaced by a little loss.
It was tempting to cash out but I kept on telling myself that I need to leave these bets until full-time, that is the system. Cashing-out early would limit my profit in the long-term.
I managed to hold out.
Thankfully I did as it gave me a bumper system 2 payday. Had I cashed out early I likely would've been sat with my head in my hands, not unlike an Argentinian football fan, at full-time.
Saudi held on brilliantly, nullified Messi and the other Argentinian stars, and I savoured the moment after the match where I clicked Refresh and watched the balance shoot up. There was no success in the other 3 matches that day but those losses only put a little dint in the profits from the 10am match.
Tuesday also saw system 1 have a great day despite a lower than usual number of bets.
All in all an extremely successful day for betting. These days do come along every-so-often but they are smoothed out by many losing days. Both charts are climbing so all is good.
The remainder of the week was so-so when it came to World Cup wagers. Despite two overall losing days I come out of the first round of Group Stage matches with more than double the total profit I managed from the entire 2014 World Cup - and this in a year with no special bookmaker offers. Good going I would say.
Unfortunately the financial markets weren't as generous and I had to close one of my two positions on Monday, taking a small 10.6% loss.
I had purchased a Brent Crude ETF (LM052), again, but it starting falling immediately and didn't stop over the two weeks I held it. Brent has continued to fall so it does appear that in the short term, at least, I made the right decision to close.
With the FTSE 250 bouncing up and down just under the 200 day SMA it may be that the LM fund jumps back into buying shares soon.