LM portfolio as at 18/11/2022:
| Code | Sector | Date Bought | Cost | Value | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LM051 | ETC | 07/11/2022 | £1270 | £1220 | (3.90%) |
| LM052 | ETC | 07/11/2022 | £1260 | £1140 | (9.97%) |
The FTSE 250 almost touched its 200 day SMA last week but then dropped down a little again. Warning, perhaps, not to get too excited by the recent upsurge in markets. There is a saying - the biggest up moves happen in a down market, or something along those lines.
I continue to wait.
Of course the two positions I did open are not too healthy. See above table where one is down 10% and the other down 4%. It's not the end of the world but certainly frustrating as these markets now need to rise just to get to breakeven, then rise further for me to have any chance of making any money.
But let's not worry about that nonsense because it's World Cup Time!
This must be the least anticipated World Cup ever due to the host and the fact it's being held in Winter. Did no one consider the English? We watch the match in the pub then sit and console ourselves in the beer garden afterwards. That's how it goes, why mess with the system?
Still, it makes for some interesting betting.
The last time I hunkered down and spent some time betting on a World Cup was the 2014 event - where England did nothing and were out before the third game in the group stage.
I filled in one of those wall charts with the profit I made on each match. This was a combination of taking advantage of bookmaker bonuses, using some trading methods I'd learned and also using the information gleaned from buying a special "Trend Report" from some trading website.
Anyway, I did a lot of trading/betting and ended up with a low 3 figure profit. It would've been almost double but for the freak semi-final where Germany ran rampant against Brazil, winning 7-1 when trends suggested that these are low-scoring games as 2/3 of semis finish with less than 2 goals and 3/4 with less than 3 goals.
This time around I'll be diving in and out where possible, using various trading methods I've learnt over the years. Mostly they are to do with lack of expected goals coming in to the last 10/15 minutes of a match.
In the 3rd games of the group stage and the knockout rounds there should be plenty of opportunities to snatch some cash.
I didn't bother doing anything in last night's match. Qatar are a joke of a team and I can't imagine any other HOST NATION in the world who would have a half empty stadium at any point of their opening game. 'nuff said.
Aside from the in-play trading, I have opened 4 positions on Betfair ahead of any REAL games kicking off (England v Iran at 1pm today is the first). These are as follows:
Lay bet on England to Qualify - £32 at 1.14
Lay bet on Argentina to Qualify - £32 at 1.12
Lay bet on France to Qualify - £32 at 1.15
Lay bet on Germany to Qualify - £32 at 1.21
Best case scenario is that none of these teams make it to the knockout stages and I get £125.44 profit.
Worst case is that all of them get through and I lose £19.84.
In order to profit I just need ONE of these teams to fail to get through. And this is the World Cup, if you have one bad game then that can be it, you're on the plane home.
In the past 3 World Cups the previous winner has failed to get through the Group stage - Italy in 2010, Spain in 2014 and Germany in 2018.
It's a strange trend and difficult to pin down why it happens so frequently. Could be the pressure getting to the players, or it could be the team changes - 4 years is a long time - but there must be something in it.
This time around France will obviously be hoping to break that trend but history shows they aren't immune.
I always remember the 2002 World Cup where France were the holders but went home straight away and were joined by some big guns like Uruguay, Portugal, Argentina and Croatia. Each team only gets three games guaranteed and anything can happen in those matches.
Those are the pre-tournament bets, let's see how I do.
If the groups follow the odds and then the knockout stages follow the odds, the semis should be Argentina v Brazil and France v Germany, with Brazil then beating France in the final.
However, Brazil are 4.4 on Betfair which I think is ridiculously short and so there isn't much point betting on that.
My plan is to see how the first games go, hope that some of the favourites have a shocker and then perhaps take advantage of the odds moves. If I can't find anything after that then it's not a big deal, the money should come from trading/betting in-play.
As a result of all the changes over the past few years there is pretty much nothing in terms of special offers from bookmakers. Sad really as this used to be a great time to take advantage.